At the start of 2024 I tried to explain the eye-watering reality of exponential growth and its effects on EV uptake in South Africa. This is an update and revisit of the original article. Were my projections accurate? I wish I could say yes and end the article. But the answer is yes and no, so let’s recap the basics of exponential growth and then look at the state of the EV Nation.
The story goes that an eastern ruler commissioned an underling to devise a game. He came up with the game of chess. The king loved it so much he asked him to name his reward. The underling said he didn’t want money, merely one grain of rice on the first block of the chess board, two grains on the second block, four on the third block, and so forth. The king – not thinking exponentially immediately agreed. Below is a truncated table showing the chessboard per row of 8 squares (or watch the YouTube video instead)
| Square | Grains | 1kg of rice = 15000 grains |
| 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 9 | 256 | 0 |
| 17 | 65 536 | 4 |
| 25 | 16 777 216 | 1 118 |
| 33 | 4 294 967 296 | 286 331 |
| 41 | 1 099 511 627 776 | 73 300 775 |
| 49 | 281 474 976 710 656 | 18 764 998 447 |
| 57 | 72 057 594 037 927 900 | 4 803 839 602 529 |
| 64 | 9 223 372 036 854 780 000 | 614 891 469 123 652 |
| Total | 18 446 744 073 709 600 000 | 1 229 782 938 247 300 |
Eighteen zeroes denote a quintillion grains of rice. Eighteen quintillion is five thousand times China’s total rice production in 2022. I.e., it would take China 5000 years to pay the underling. Oops!
At the beginning of 2024 people are dismissive of the uptake of EVs, often citing the low sales figures. I predicted that SA would see exponential growth and by projecting the sales (below) I forecast that EV sales would go from 502 in Dec 2022, to 8385 by Dec 2026.
I solemnly admit now I was wrong. It is August 2026 and the EV sales so far total 6042, projecting to 12084 by December. I must acknowledge that these figures come from NAAMSA (who in turn acknowledge that Chinese manufacturers are underreporting sales. And by Chinese manufacturers I mean BYD)). NAAMSA has reported 193% year on year growth for EVs. Or, that 2026 has reach 293% of 2025 sales. So far.
I also acknowledge Donald Trump for waging war on Iran and creating a tipping point for many ICE drivers thus making it easier for them to transition to EVs. If we assume sanity will prevail or an assassin’s bullet will bring peace to the Middle east, and regard 2026 as an anomalous spike, let’s return to my very optimistic EV sales projection for 2027 to 2032, using my original figures.
| 2027 | 16 686 | 99% |
| 2028 | 33 205 | 99% |
| 2029 | 66 078 | 99% |
| 2030 | 131 496 | 99% |
| 2031 | 261 677 | 99% |
| 2032 | 520 738 | 99% |
Sales of 520 000 units per annum is nothing to be sneezed at. That is 5 percent of all vehicles on SA roads. At the previous 5 years sales and you have 1 million EVs on SA roads. The silence will be deafening. And even if my prediction is just half right 520 000 EVs is not insignificant.
At plus-minus R400 000 per car (prices have come down since 2024) that’s a R208 billion-rand’s worth of cars all over the place.
Those cars need to be charged somewhere. Since the war against Iran the average SA motorist spends R60k on fuel costs per year. Multiply that by 520 000 EVs and you’re looking at a 31-billion-rand industry.
For CHARGE the uptake in EVs has coincided with the opening of two electric vehicle charging destinations on the N3, making it possible for travellers between Durban and Johannesburg to banish range anxiety and enjoy the scenery. The uptake in EVs has proven CHARGE’s postulation that the availability of reliable charging stations and EV prices below R400k will hasten the EV transition. CHARGE has also proven that it can build multiple stations simultaneously and complete the projects on schedule and under budget. The cumulative kilowatts sold has exceeded expectation. So has the number of saving in metric tonnes of carbon emissions, i.e. approximately 140kg per day on average.
Within one year the exponential growth will be felt even more as emissions are further reduced, more kilowatts are sold and profitability increases.
As is the nature of exponential growth, the whole business has shifted into a higher gear. More dealerships, more EV models, more range. More charging stations, more solar panels, more rapid charging speeds. And that is just the car side of the revolution. Light EV delivery vehicles need energy too and CHARGE is scaling up to meet that demand. Looming on the horizon are electric trucks which will be 25 to 30% more fuel efficient than ICE trucks. More about that in future blogs.
To end off, do the exponential math, and get your head around the transformation that is about to happen. In December 2028 I’ll revisit this blog and roll the bones once again.
Thanks for reading. If you disagree with my figures, please engage with me at [email protected]. I will gladly post a retraction if I am proved wrong. If you like my figures, please forward them to a friend.
