Recap time. In previous blogs I have rambled on about:
Exponential growth – where for example you leave a bit of money in an interest-bearing account and it grows in a manner that seems to defy grade 12 math;
BYD (aka Build Your Dream) was founded by Wang Chuanfu – a rural kid who harnessed his academic and entrepreneurial skills to turn a cellphone battery company into the largest EV manufacturer in the word (4.46 million new energy vehicles in 2025!); and,
The CHARGE business model which is based – in part – on the drive to establish a solar powered EV charging station every 150 km on SA’s n-routes, and on the prediction that EV adoption will accelerate when the price drops below R500k.
Okay, back to the present where these topics are coming together. As of May 2026, CHARGE will have two operational EV charging stations on the N3 – unlocking the route between JHB/PTA and Durban, SA’s busiest holiday and trade destination.
As of September 2025, The BYD Dolphin Surf has been available at R339k in SA. And this is where exponential growth becomes a factor. Take a look at this table indicating EV sales in South Africa.
|
Year
|
BYD units
|
Other brands’ units
|
Total Units
|
Units Per Month
|
|
2024
|
100
|
1057
|
1157
|
100
|
|
2025
|
800
|
1088
|
1088
|
160
|
|
2026 1st Q
|
720
|
272
|
3968
|
>331
|
|
2027 1st Q
|
1440 (x 2)
|
272
|
6848
|
>571
|
|
2027 1st Q
|
5760 (x8)
|
272
|
24960
|
>2011
|
2026 sales are only for the first quarter. If we assume that other brands do not grow, we project 3968 total sales for 2026
If we assume a doubling of BYD sales in 2027 (1440 in the first quarter) and no other brand growth we get to 6848. But if we assume exponential growth (i.e., x8 as from ‘24 to ‘25 and again to ’26).
And finally, a look at the future. I’ll assume that you won’t extrapolate further because mental arithmetic is, oh, hard, then take my word for it that by 2035 EVs will be in the majority. Now add:
- by Dec 2026, CHARGE will have two operational sites on the N1;
- solar charging is steadily becoming better and cheaper;
- Chery will be building EVs locally thus dropping the price by 25% by eliminating that annoying Ad Valorem tax.
But, perhaps it’s nothing to do with EVs being so fantastic, and all to do with the petrol price hike hurting everyone. Either way watch the CHARGE space – it’s the only viable solution. But don’t take my word for it – do the calculations.
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